The “Year of Truth:” The Impact of the 2020 Elections on the Integration Project of the Russian Federation with Belarus
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.62229/Keywords:
Belarus, Russia, the project of integration of the Russian Federation and Belarus, LukashenkoAbstract
Since the 1990s, the integration of Belarus and the Russian Federation has played an important role in Russia’s foreign policy strategy. Russian- Belarusian relations are crucial for Russia due to the geopolitical, political, economic, and cultural context. By contrast, Belarus is much less enthusiastic about the project as there are many objections to its implementation. One of the main concerns is the threat of a loss of sovereignty. Despite the relatively great interest in Belarusian-Russian relations, essential nuances are not considered in academic works. Instead, Western experts are deeply convinced of the inevitability of a rapprochement between Russia and Belarus and the unification of the goals, method, pace, and integration tools. The myth of the almost natural integration of these countries, based on cultural, linguistic, and religious proximity, is still alive. This article is a contribution to this debate whose aim is to discuss the key stages of the analyzed integration process and show this bilateral project’s specificity. Therefore, it focuses on the various dimensions of the integration process between the Russian Federation and Belarus to identify threats and opportunities for its implementation. This introduces a new framework for evaluating the internal situation of Belarus after the mid-2020 elections. The analysis shows that recent trends in the evolution of domestic politics in Belarus may significantly contribute to the intensification of the integration project and the redefinition of Lukashenko’s role in this project.References
New Year Address of President A. Lukashenko, President of the Republic of Belarus, December 31, 2019, accessed April 20, 2022, http://president.gov.by/en/ news_en/view/new-year-address-22761.
Konrad Świder, Rosyjska świadomość geopolityczna a Ukraina i Białoruś [Russian Geopolitical Awareness and Ukraine and Belarus] (Warsaw: Instytut Studiów Politycznych PAN, 2015), 159-161.
Grigory Ioffe, Reassessing Lukashenka. Belarus in Cultural and Geopolitical Context (Hampshire: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2014); Fabian Burkhardt, “Constitutional Politics in Belarus” in Constitutional Politics in Central and Eastern Europe. Between Stability and Change, eds. Anna Fruhstorfer and Michael Hein (Wiesbaden: Springer VS, 2016), 463-493; Matthew Frear, Belarus under Lukashenka. Adaptive Authoritarianism (London and New York: Routledge, 2020); David R. Marples, Belarus: A Denationalized Nation (Amsterdam: Harwood Academic Publishers, 1999).
Karen Dawisha and Bruce Parrot, Democratic Changes and Authoritarian Reactions in Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1997); Rachel Vanderhill and Michael E. Aleprete Jr., eds., The International Dimensions of Authoritarian Persistence in the Former Soviet Union (Playmouth: Lexington Press, 2013), 81-104; Martin Brusis, Joachim Ahrens and Martin Schulze Wessel, eds., Legitimacy in Post-Soviet Eurasia (London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2016).
Steven M. Eke and Taras Kuzio, “Sultanism in Eastern Europe: The Socio-Political Roots of Authoritarian Populism in Belarus,” Europe-Asia Studies 52, no. 3 (2000): 523–547; Alexander Danilovich, Russian-Belarusian Integration. Playing Games Behind the Kremlin Walls (Hampshire: Routledge, 2006).
Ian Klinke, “Geopolitical Narratives on Belarus in Contemporary Russia,” Perspectives 16, no. 1 (2008):109-131; Randall Newnham “Russia and Belarus: Economic Linkage in a Patron-Client Relationship,” Journal of Belarusian Studies 9, no. 1 (2020): 3-26; Ian McAllister and Stephen White, “Nostalgia for the Demise of the USSR in Belarus, Russia and Ukraine,” Russian Politics 1, no. 2 (2016): 113-130.
Jurij Drakochrust and Dmitrij Furman, “Pieripietii intiegracii (Razwitie processa bielorussko-rossijskogo objedinienija)” [Perversities of Integration (Development of the Russian-Belarusian Merger Process)], in Rossija i Bielorossija: obszczestwa i gosudarstwa [Russia and Belarus: Societies and States], ed. Dmitrij Furman (Moskwa: Human Rights Publishers, 1998).
John P. Hardt and Richard F. Kaufman, The Former Soviet Union in Transition (New York: Routledge, 1993).
Vladislav Karbalewicz, “Put’ Łukaszenko k wlasti” [Lukashenko’s Path to Power], in Rossija i Bielorossija: obszczestwa i gosudarstwa [Russia and Belarus: Societies and States], ed. Dmitrij Furman (Moskwa: Human Rights Publishers, 1998), 226-258.
Bobo Lo, Russian Foreign Policy in the Post-Soviet Era: Reality, Illusion and Mythmaking (Hampshire and New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2002).
Fabian Burkhardt, “Concepts of the Nation and Legitimation in Belarus” in Politics and Legitimacy in Post-Soviet Eurasia, eds. Martin Brusis, Joachim Ahrens and Martin Schulze Wessel (London and New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2016), 148-171.
Ronald J. Hill, “Post-Soviet Belarus in Search of Direction,” in Postcommunist Belarus, eds. Stephen White, Elena Korosteleva and John Löwenhardt, (Maryland: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, 2005).
In an interview given by President Aleksandr Lukashenko to 24KZ television, he stressed that he sees no need to adopt a common currency within the Eurasian Economic Union. Tengrinews.kz (online), Aleksandr Lukashenko’s interview, “Lukashenka sees no need for a single currency and a political superstructure in the EEC”, accessed April 22, 2022, https://tengrinews.kz/sng/lukashenko-vidit-neobhodimosti-edinoy-valyute-politicheskoy-242805/.
RBC.ru (online), Polina Chimshiashvili, Vladimir Dergachev, Anton Feinberg and Irina Parfentyeva, “Why Alexander Lukashenko is quarreling with Russia,” February 2, 2017, accessed April 22, 2022, https://www.rbc.ru/politics/03/02/2017/58947ac99a7947f47c832f01.
Soyuz.by (online), “Action Program for Belarus and the Russian Federation to implement the provisions of the agreement on setting up the Union State,” accessed April 22, 2022, https://soyuz.by/programma-deystviy-rossiyskoy-federacii-i-respubliki-belarus-porealizacii-polozheniy-dogovora-o-sozdanii-soyuznogo-gosudarstva.
Ratification of the Agreement between the Governments of Belarus and Russia on mutual recognition of visas and other issues related to the entry of foreigners and stateless persons into the territory of the Union State.
The first tranche of the loan, in the amount of $500 million, is to be transferred to Belarus by the end of 2020, while the second - by the end of 2021.
Margarita M. Balmaceda, “Energy Policy in Belarus: Authoritarian Resilience, Social Contracts, and Patronage in a Post-soviet Environment,” Eurasian Geography and Economics 55, no. 5 (2014): 520.
Thomas Ambrosio, “The Political Success of Russia-Belarus Relations: Insulating Minsk from a Color Revolution,” Demokratizatsiya - The Journal of Post-Soviet Democratization 14, no. 3 (2006): 407-434.
Margarita M. Balmaceda, Living the High Life in Minsk. Russian Energy Rents, Domestic Populism and Belarus’ Impending Crisis (Budapest: Central European University Press, 2014).
Belta.by (online), Aleksandr Lukasheko’s interview, “Machine guns, a dozen assault rifles, two dozen rifles - Lukashenka spoke about the detention of an illegal arsenal,” accessed April 22, 2022, https://www.belta.by/president/view/pulemety-desjatok-avtomatov-dvadesjatka-vintovok-lukashenko-rasskazal-o-zaderzhanii-nelegalnogo-318963-2018/.
Andrey Yekadumaw, “The Russian Factor in The Development of Belarussian Culture”, in Belarus-Russia Integration. Analitycal Articles, ed. Valer Bulhakaw (Minsk, Warsaw: Minsk Analytical Group, 2003).
Belta.by (online), Aleksandr Lukashenko, interview, “We must protect our interests” Lukashenka invited Russia to think about new military exercises,” accessed April 22, 2022, https://www.belta.by/president/view/svoi-interesy-my-dolzhny-bljusti-lukashenkopredlozhil-rossii-podumat-nad-novymi-voennymi-uchenijami-407000-2020/.
Laurynas Jonavičius, “From Russia with Love: Internal Balance of Power in Russia and the Survival of Lukashenko’s Regime,” Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 29, no. 29 (2013): 81-111.
President of the Republic of Belarus (online), Interview with the editor-in-chief of the Ekho Moskvy radio station Alexei Venediktov, December 24, 2019, accessed April 22, 2022, https://president.gov.by/ru/events/intervjjuglavnomu-redaktoru-radiostantsii-exo-moskvy-alekseju-venediktovu-22688.
Belsat.tv (online), “Head of the Belarusian Foreign Ministry: Absolutely unacceptable integration proposals came from the Russian side,” October 1, 2019, accessed April 22, 2022, https://naviny.belsat.eu/pl/news/szef-bialoruskiego-msz-ze-strony-rosji-plynelyabsolutnie-nieakceptowane-propozycje-integracji/.
President A. Lukashenko’s statement on integration: “Belarus ready for dialogue with NATO – Lukashenka,” Belsat, February 22, 2019, accessed April 22, 2022, https://naviny.belsat.eu/en/news/belarus-ready-for-dialogue-with-nato-lukashenka/. Belta.by (online), “President A. Lukashenko’s statement on integration: Belarus and Russia are each other’s guardian angel,” August 2019, accessed April 22, 2022, https://www.belta.by/president/view/lukashenko-belarus-i-rossija-drug-dlja-drugajavljajutsja-angelom-hranitelem-315388-2018/.
Tatiana Melnichuk, “Deputy head of the Security Council of Belarus Utyurin is accused of bribery. What is known about him?”, BBC News (online), March 4, 2019, accessed April 22, 2022, https://www.bbc.com/russian/features-48160916.
Belta.by (online), “Lukashenka: Russia is hinting at the accession of Belarus in exchange for uniform energy prices,” February 2020, President A. Lukashenko’s statement on integration: Russia hints at joining Belarus in exchange for uniform energy prices, accessed April 22, 2022, https://www.belta.by/president/view/lukashenko-v-rossiinamekajut-na-prisoedinenie-belarusi-v-obmen-na-edinye-tseny-na-energonositeli-3796612020/.
Belta.by (online), “President A. Lukashenko’s statement on integration: Integration is an inevitable necessity - Lukashenko announced the priorities of Belarus’ presidency in the CIS,” December 2020, accessed April 22, 2022, https://www.belta.by/president/view/ integratsija-neizbezhnaja-neobhodimost-lukashenko-ozvuchil-prioritety-predsedatelstvabelarusi-v-sng-420767-2020/.
Michał Słowikowski, “Ewolucja polityki Federacji Rosyjskiej wobec Białorusi w kontekście wysiłków integracyjnych w ramach Państwa Związkowego” [Evolution of the Policy of the Russian Federation Towards Belarus in the Context of Integration Efforts Within the Union State], Sprawy międzynarodowe 72, no. 4 (2019): 129-159.
Simon Lewis, Belarus – Alternative Visions. Nation, Memory and Cosmopolitanism (Oxford: Routledge, 2019).
Duma.gov.ru (online), “Full text of amendments to the Constitution: what is changing?,” March 2020. The corrections to the Russian context resulting from the amendment to the Russian Constitution and the rumors in the media about President Vladimir Putin’s disease should be considered (Putin’s disease denied on November 6, 2020, by press secretary, Dmitry Pieskov).
Polskieradio24 (online), “Former NATO Secretary on Belarus: there is only one way forward,” November 2018, accessed April 22, 2022, https://www.polskieradio24.pl/75/921/Artykul/ 2210136,Byly-sekretarz-NATO-o-Bialorusi-jest-tylko-jedna-droga-naprzod.
Audiovisual material with the statement of President Putin available on Youtube.com, accessed December 19, 2020, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EmKBBy11b5Q, audio, 10:9.
A recording of President Lukashenko’s speech was published on the Pool Pervyi Telegram channel, accessed April 22, 2022, https://t.me/s/pul_1.
Kremlin.ru (online), “Telephone conversation with the President of Belarus”, Alexander Lukashenko, accessed May 10, 2021, http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/63894/ print.
Paul Goble, “New Pro-Russia ‘Party’ in Belarus Less Than It Appears,” Eurasia Daily Monitor 17, no. 144 (2020), accessed May 10, 2021, https://jamestown.org/program/newpro-russia-party-in-belarus-less-than-it-appears/. The contents of the project are described in the article: The Insider (online), “Plan B. The Kremlin creates its own party in Belarus: against Lukashenka, but for integration with the Russian Federation,” December 25, 2020, accessed May 15, 2021, https://theins.ru/politika/237945.
